Monday, March 21, 2011

2011 NCAA Tournament Preview:

Ah, the days of March Madness are here.  The greatest period of time in sports begins with the first four in Dayton, Ohio.  This year we have a lot to talk about, but before I get to a region by region breakdown, allow me to ramble.

In the wise words of Alexi Lalas, "Let's not dwell on this, but that was a disgrace".  I'm looking at you committee and your inclusion of four teams which has dealt me a hard blow, made me doubt your abilities to properly select a tournament field, and worst of all I am agreeing with Doug Gottlieb
The face of all evil
The NCAA committee has a tough job, but unfortunately made a blunder...or well four, and now will be submitted to my never ceasing fury. Four teams who have about as much right to be playing in the tournament as I do are, whilst four teams with much better qualifications are sitting at home.  The four "how the hells?" are in order of most deserving to least, Georgia, Clemson, VCU, and UAB. (It's a bad omen when Georgia is the most deserving team).  Compare these four teams to (same order) Colorado, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, and Alabama.  Now I know the committee will make mistakes, so maybe keeping Georgia in and omitting Alabama is acceptable...except Bama was 2-0 against Georgia.  Many look at Clemson as a tournament team, they were 9-7 in the ACC, finished with a respectable 21-11 record, and had quality wins against Va-Tech, Florida State, and.....meanwhile, ACC mate Virginia Tech had the same records for both ACC and overall, but they beat Duke, FSU twice, and a tourney team in Penn State.  Continuing, the well deserving VCU Rams finished fourth in the prestigious Colonial Conference...what, never heard of it?  Wames.  But the Rams did have nice wins against George Mason from the very same Colonial.  UAB played some tough games, playing at Duke, where they lost by 21.  It isn't that UAB and VCU are bad teams who don't have good players, but the tournament is supposed to be earned and these two teams simply did not do enough to earn a bid.  UAB's best win is against VCU (A tourney team, right?) and after that it's a 3-point, 3 OT victory against UTEP.  It is probably a bi-product of wanting to keep a relative ratio of Power Conference Teams to Mid-Majors, but if Mid-Majors want to be at-large, non-automatic qualifiers, they need to schedule games against quality (power conference) teams and win.  It is a shame when a team like Colorado is left out after beating Kansas State 3 times, Texas, and Missouri and VCU is in with their best win against George Mason (who themselves didn't play a ranked team all year).  Anyway, let's move onto the region by region breakdown:
East (Newark):
Top Four Seeds: (Ohio State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Kentucky)
Favorite: #1 Ohio State, The Bucks are the number one overall seed, and one of only two teams who look championship worthy.  Many see this region as the toughest in the bracket, but an inexperienced and relatively unproven #2 seed (North Carolina) and an overrated #4 (Kentucky) actually shape this into an easy region for OSU to make it to at least the elite 8, where Syracuse will probably be their toughest opponent.
Dark Horse: #11 Marquette, the Golden Eagles dominated West Virginia (#5 in this region) in the Big East tournament.  They are the type of team you don't want to play in March: athletic and they bomb treys.
Cinderella: #8 George Mason, they are from the Colonial, haven't played a ranked team all year, but George Mason is good enough...but they have the toughest #9 seed in the tournament, and then OSU.
Elite Eight Match-Up: Ohio State versus Syracuse.
Upset to pick: #13 Princeton over #4 Kentucky, youth, expectations, and overrating will plague UK.
Team Coming Out: Ohio State, there is too much talent.  OSU can score from everywhere and they score consistently.

West (Anaheim):
Top Four Seeds: (Duke, San Diego State, Connecticut, Texas)
Favorite: #4 Texas, the Longhorns have the most talent in what I find to be the deepest region.  It wasn't too long ago Texas was looked at as a possible #1 overall seed, and this region has the Longhorns as a #4.  Texas has the talent to win it all, but their inconsistent play makes them highly vulnerable in a win or go home situation.
Dark Horse: #6 Cincinnati, every Big East team is capable, and UC proved they can win against good teams in conference.  It would be a surprise if any team seeded lower than 4 came out of this region, though.
Cinderella: #14 Bucknell, playing in the bottom is better than playing in the top in the west.  If Bucknell beats Connecticut in the first round, there is no reason to believe the Patriot League champs can't get to the Elite Eight.
Upset to pick: #12 Memphis over #5 Arizona, Arizona lacks scorers and Memphis has proven they can score.
Elite Eight Match-up: #4 Texas versus #2 San Diego State
Team Coming Out: #2 San Diego State, they play as a team, and their conservative, patient style will beat out he frenzy that is Texas.

Southwest (San Antonio):
Top Four Seeds: (Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue, Louisville)
Favorite: #1 Kansas, the other of the two championship quality teams, if the Jayhawks or formerly mentioned Ohio State don't win the title it'll be a disappointment, but it is March Madness.
Dark Horse: #6 Georgetown, people have lost faith in the once top-10 team, but Chris Wright should be back and their first two rounds are favorable match-ups.
Cinderella: #12 Richmond, the Spiders are the only team ranked 11-16 who are capable of winning their first round game.
Upset to Pick: #6 Georgetown over #2 Notre Dame (round 4), the Hoyas are dangerous, watch 'em.
Elite Eight match-up: #1 Kansas versus #2 Notre Dame, our first 1-2 match-up, if the Irish play as well as they can, they can take down the mighty Jayhawks, but they'll need to be flawless and force the thrifty Kansas team into turnovers.
Team Coming out: #1 Kansas, Rock, Chalk (I hate that) to the Final Four, Kansas's complete team should be too much for anyone else.

Southeast (New Orleans):
Top Four Seeds: (Pittsburgh, Florida, BYU, Wisconsin)
Favorite: #1 Pittsburgh, the Panthers are the only viable Final Four team in this whole region. Florida had a worse record, finish in the conference tournament, and ranking in the AP poll than Texas, but garnered a #2 and BYU is bad now.
Dark Horse: #8 Butler, the Bulldogs made the Championship last year, and this year their region in horrible
Cinderella: #10 Michigan State, Sparty was #2 in the preseason and the "experts" don't often make too egregious of mistakes.  They could be very dangerous.
Upset to pick: #11 Gonzaga over #6 St. John, the Red Storm are streaking and the Zags have a very solid all around game and a point guard in Stockton who can make plays, a dangerous thing in March.
Elite Eight Match-up: #2 Florida versus #1 Pittsburgh
Team Coming Out: #1 Pittsburgh, in a horrible region where none of the teams are worthy of a Final Four, the Panthers are the only team which can make a case as the winners of the fantastic Big East.

1 comment:

  1. http://beatsandbrokenchords.wordpress.com/

    Lauren started a blog! After this little entry and your March Madness experience, I am sure you need a little Monday cheering up. She did her first one on Rough Mondays. Its music based so check it out when you get the chance.

    Keep up the writing by the way buddy. I always enjoy reading.

    ReplyDelete