2011 NCAA Tournament Preview:

Ah, the days of March Madness are here.  The greatest period of time in sports begins with the first four in Dayton, Ohio.  This year we have a lot to talk about, but before I get to a region by region breakdown, allow me to ramble.

In the wise words of Alexi Lalas, "Let's not dwell on this, but that was a disgrace".  I'm looking at you committee and your inclusion of four teams which has dealt me a hard blow, made me doubt your abilities to properly select a tournament field, and worst of all I am agreeing with Doug Gottlieb

The face of all evil

The NCAA committee has a tough job, but unfortunately made a blunder...or well four, and now will be submitted to my never ceasing fury. Four teams who have about as much right to be playing in the tournament as I do are, whilst four teams with much better qualifications are sitting at home.  The four "how the hells?" are in order of most deserving to least, Georgia, Clemson, VCU, and UAB. (It's a bad omen when Georgia is the most deserving team).  Compare these four teams to (same order) Colorado, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, and Alabama.  Now I know the committee will make mistakes, so maybe keeping Georgia in and omitting Alabama is acceptable...except Bama was 2-0 against Georgia.  Many look at Clemson as a tournament team, they were 9-7 in the ACC, finished with a respectable 21-11 record, and had quality wins against Va-Tech, Florida State, and.....meanwhile, ACC mate Virginia Tech had the same records for both ACC and overall, but they beat Duke, FSU twice, and a tourney team in Penn State.  Continuing, the well deserving VCU Rams finished fourth in the prestigious Colonial Conference...what, never heard of it?  Wames.  But the Rams did have nice wins against George Mason from the very same Colonial.  UAB played some tough games, playing at Duke, where they lost by 21.  It isn't that UAB and VCU are bad teams who don't have good players, but the tournament is supposed to be earned and these two teams simply did not do enough to earn a bid.  UAB's best win is against VCU (A tourney team, right?) and after that it's a 3-point, 3 OT victory against UTEP.  It is probably a bi-product of wanting to keep a relative ratio of Power Conference Teams to Mid-Majors, but if Mid-Majors want to be at-large, non-automatic qualifiers, they need to schedule games against quality (power conference) teams and win.  It is a shame when a team like Colorado is left out after beating Kansas State 3 times, Texas, and Missouri and VCU is in with their best win against George Mason (who themselves didn't play a ranked team all year).  Anyway, let's move onto the region by region breakdown:
East (Newark):
Top Four Seeds: (Ohio State, North Carolina, Syracuse, Kentucky)
Favorite: #1 Ohio State, The Bucks are the number one overall seed, and one of only two teams who look championship worthy.  Many see this region as the toughest in the bracket, but an inexperienced and relatively unproven #2 seed (North Carolina) and an overrated #4 (Kentucky) actually shape this into an easy region for OSU to make it to at least the elite 8, where Syracuse will probably be their toughest opponent.
Dark Horse: #11 Marquette, the Golden Eagles dominated West Virginia (#5 in this region) in the Big East tournament.  They are the type of team you don't want to play in March: athletic and they bomb treys.
Cinderella: #8 George Mason, they are from the Colonial, haven't played a ranked team all year, but George Mason is good enough...but they have the toughest #9 seed in the tournament, and then OSU.
Elite Eight Match-Up: Ohio State versus Syracuse.
Upset to pick: #13 Princeton over #4 Kentucky, youth, expectations, and overrating will plague UK.
Team Coming Out: Ohio State, there is too much talent.  OSU can score from everywhere and they score consistently.

West (Anaheim):
Top Four Seeds: (Duke, San Diego State, Connecticut, Texas)
Favorite: #4 Texas, the Longhorns have the most talent in what I find to be the deepest region.  It wasn't too long ago Texas was looked at as a possible #1 overall seed, and this region has the Longhorns as a #4.  Texas has the talent to win it all, but their inconsistent play makes them highly vulnerable in a win or go home situation.
Dark Horse: #6 Cincinnati, every Big East team is capable, and UC proved they can win against good teams in conference.  It would be a surprise if any team seeded lower than 4 came out of this region, though.
Cinderella: #14 Bucknell, playing in the bottom is better than playing in the top in the west.  If Bucknell beats Connecticut in the first round, there is no reason to believe the Patriot League champs can't get to the Elite Eight.
Upset to pick: #12 Memphis over #5 Arizona, Arizona lacks scorers and Memphis has proven they can score.
Elite Eight Match-up: #4 Texas versus #2 San Diego State
Team Coming Out: #2 San Diego State, they play as a team, and their conservative, patient style will beat out he frenzy that is Texas.

Southwest (San Antonio):
Top Four Seeds: (Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue, Louisville)
Favorite: #1 Kansas, the other of the two championship quality teams, if the Jayhawks or formerly mentioned Ohio State don't win the title it'll be a disappointment, but it is March Madness.
Dark Horse: #6 Georgetown, people have lost faith in the once top-10 team, but Chris Wright should be back and their first two rounds are favorable match-ups.
Cinderella: #12 Richmond, the Spiders are the only team ranked 11-16 who are capable of winning their first round game.
Upset to Pick: #6 Georgetown over #2 Notre Dame (round 4), the Hoyas are dangerous, watch 'em.
Elite Eight match-up: #1 Kansas versus #2 Notre Dame, our first 1-2 match-up, if the Irish play as well as they can, they can take down the mighty Jayhawks, but they'll need to be flawless and force the thrifty Kansas team into turnovers.
Team Coming out: #1 Kansas, Rock, Chalk (I hate that) to the Final Four, Kansas's complete team should be too much for anyone else.

Southeast (New Orleans):
Top Four Seeds: (Pittsburgh, Florida, BYU, Wisconsin)
Favorite: #1 Pittsburgh, the Panthers are the only viable Final Four team in this whole region. Florida had a worse record, finish in the conference tournament, and ranking in the AP poll than Texas, but garnered a #2 and BYU is bad now.
Dark Horse: #8 Butler, the Bulldogs made the Championship last year, and this year their region in horrible
Cinderella: #10 Michigan State, Sparty was #2 in the preseason and the "experts" don't often make too egregious of mistakes.  They could be very dangerous.
Upset to pick: #11 Gonzaga over #6 St. John, the Red Storm are streaking and the Zags have a very solid all around game and a point guard in Stockton who can make plays, a dangerous thing in March.
Elite Eight Match-up: #2 Florida versus #1 Pittsburgh
Team Coming Out: #1 Pittsburgh, in a horrible region where none of the teams are worthy of a Final Four, the Panthers are the only team which can make a case as the winners of the fantastic Big East.

Tournament Showdown

Selection Sunday is tomorrow, and anyone interested in joining the 1st annual Macier Ross bracket challenge is welcome to do so.

7 types of Tourney Teams

The NCAA tournament is hyped for the teams which live to become legendary whether that be through a title, an appearance, or a Cinderella run.  Many people look at the tournament as a mockery of competition where only ten or so teams actually have the opportunity to win the title, but honestly whilst the champion is the one who is remembered forever, teams all over have goals which make the tournament a special time of year.  Some teams can make an impact and be a team which completely alters the tournament...even before it begins.


#6 The Favorites:
2010 examples: Kansas, Duke, West Virginia
We can pretty much make this list up easily.  A 1 or 2 seed takes up most of these roles, but sometimes a 3 seed can be a favorite to dance deep...and win.  An example of that would be Stanford in 2008 when they had the Lopez twins and were looked at as a top tier title team.  These are the teams whose years are complete failures should they not breech the elite eight and by the time this happens every fan feels their respective favorite has become the best team around and should they fail to bring home the championship they are failures.  Everything revolves around that championship and getting to put a net around your neck and hold up a shiny trophy.

Or for the bold, putting the net around the trophy

#5 The At-Large Bid:
2010 examples: Tennessee, Michigan State, Clemson
This seems a little confusing since at-large bids can be used to describe a plethora of teams, but it is really simple once I tell you how it is supposed to work.

Similarly

A team which gets the Macier Ross billing of an At-Large Bid is a team which grabs a 4-8 seed and some 3 seeds (or nines, I mean it is relatively wide open, but let's just keep it 4-8) and does not win its conference tournament (hence "at-large bid").  These teams can be counted on to do one thing, get upset in the early rounds.  We love our At-larges because they are the ones who lose to our lower seeded teams, I mean without them March Madness would be less part mad and more part March (which honestly no one wants).  The only other reason we appreciate these At-Large teams is they make games against the favorites and can take them down.  Despite my cynical comments about how worthless these teams end up being, it should be mentioned they are usually top 32 teams in the country and deserve recognition since they make the tournament based only on their solid body of work in the regular season and failures in the conference tournament.

 #4 The Cinderellas
2010 examples: St. Mary's, Washington, Butler
Some people will look at this and think "Butler was a five seed?" and to that I say, they are from the Horizon League and thus making the NCAA Championship Game is worthy of earning the title, "Cinderella".  Beyond this, their race ratio was way under that of the average NCAA tournament and I have just decided to say last season's NCAA title game had the most white men in it since basketball discovered black dominance in the sport...and that's not racist, it's a compliment, and a fact.  A Cinderella is a team seeded around 9-14 who manages to make a run into the Sweet Sixteen or beyond in the tournament because it usually involves beating two teams ranked higher...including one ranked significantly higher.  These are the teams who beat up on the formerly mentioned At-Large Bids and then slide by a #'s 1-5 seed in the second round to saunter into the Sweet Sixteen.  However, this type of tourney team only qualifies if they make a run.  What happens if the don't?


#3 The Punching Bags
2010 examples (anyone seeded 15, or 16, among others)
These teams are often Conference champions from mid-majors or even conference which hardly deserve such recognition such as the Big Sky.

Worth the 96-49 loss?  Probably

 Many of these teams will lose by more than 20 points and honestly are just here because the NCAA decided they wanted to give everyone a reason to play during the regular season and try in the conference tournament...unlike the BCS

What's a Fiesta Bowl?...Sugar? Rose? Orange?...they sound unimportant.

#3 The Loser of the Play-In Game
2010 Example: Winthrop
I am well aware that only one team can gain this role each year, but doesn't that make it the second most prestigious of the teams?  I mean only the National Champion can claim such a uniqueness; however, it would be a drastic exaggeration to say they should be proud, I mean this makes them literally the 65th team and the least favorite of every NIT team.  You will forever be called "worthless" and "Bane of March Madness".  It is because of teams like you we don't get to have 65 teams worthy of a tourney bid,  but stay stalwart, my lovely #16...ummm, #17 seed.  You will forever be remembered as the team randomly picked by many because your game rarely carries weight in the picking of a bracket anyway, but ye of little meaning have something no other tournament team can claim...You never entered the body of the bracket.

#2 The Bubble Team (The Crawler):
2010 example (Utah State, Missouri, Florida)
The ones everyone watches before the tourney begins.  These are the ones who limp into the tournament (although I prefer crawl) because they have to rely on the mercy of the tournament committee to pick them over another team which the committee determines isn't quite as worthy.  The Crawlers have the most to prove because they are picked by the committee because they feel these teams could make a difference in the tournament or else they would've selected another team which had as good or maybe even a better resume.  The pressure is on to win at least the first game of the tournament.  Anything else makes everyone wonder, "What if they had taken these guys, or those guys, or another team from the Big Sky?".  I love the bubble teams because they are the mysteries, the teams which are hard to figure if you should pick them.  They usually are the 7-10 teams and have to play other Crawlers in the first round, making a good 'ol fashion coin toss an effective method.  Finally, these teams hate our #1's.
 
#1 The Bid Stealer:
2010 example (New Mexico State)
My favorite and the most important teams in all of the NCAA tournament.  These bid stealers change the way a the bracket it put together.  They literally steal a bid from an At-Large or Hobbler, hence the name.  A bid stealer wins their conference tournament (usually a mid-major, but recall Georgia in 2008 from the SEC) when they would usually have absolutely no business being in the NCAA tournament.  Everyone loves these teams because they typify the true tenacity and heart it takes to succeed in March in the NCAA.  They usually don't make a difference come tournament time, but there is no other team which can make an impact before the shindig gets going.  Only a bid-stealer can look a Bubble Team in the eye and say, "You aren't making the tournament".  Everyone loves these guys, they are the best.

I'm still gonna have to take the Dukies and Coach K!